Monday, November 23, 2009

Forex Price Dynamics

ask prices is that the ask price, by its definition, should never be lower than the bid price. In every other aspect, the two are unrelated, so the spread between the two varies according to where the open interest lies. During times of low liquidity there may be no one interested in buying above 1.2450 and no one interested in selling below 1.2550, making the spread 100+ pips. This is not necessarily the product of shady dealer practices (though at the retail level it may be), but is more likely caused my normal market mechanics – all open interest was either consumed by market orders, or withdrawn (limit orders can be cancelled before they are executed). This type of situation normally happens when important, unexpected information enters the market, such as an NFP reading that is way off the mark. In that case, open interest in one direction will be consumed by a barrage of market orders, and open interest in the other direction will be withdrawn by market participants cancelling their orders. This is equivalent to saying that liquidity is “drying up”, and that the bid price will gap down until it finds a buy limit order, and likewise, the ask price will jump up until it reaches a sell limit order. Note that no one has come in and “set” the spread. The spread is not a parameter that can be set, but is rather the result of market mechanics at their most basic level. It also should not be a surprise that, although today’s technology is lightning fast, there are delays between market order entry and execution, during which time the open interest at the desired level can be consumed

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